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by midlander12
Sun May 03, 2026 8:12 pm
Forum: News, Current Affairs & Politics
Topic: The Polls Thread
Replies: 252
Views: 60172

Re: The Polls Thread

Yes, but it's pretty much an identical system to the south. The exception being that all constituencies are 5 seaters. It's actually a hangover from partition. STV was the model for both home rule parliaments, but the north abandoned it very early on in favour of FPTP. Yeah, I know, one of the Brit...
by midlander12
Sun May 03, 2026 6:42 pm
Forum: News, Current Affairs & Politics
Topic: The Polls Thread
Replies: 252
Views: 60172

Re: The Polls Thread

As do the north for their locals. With the distributions, because ward electorates are so small they actually distribute surpluses in full - so rather than taking a sample of the winner's ballot, they look at the all the next available choices and divide them by the surplus. At the last NI locals, ...
by midlander12
Sun May 03, 2026 4:07 pm
Forum: News, Current Affairs & Politics
Topic: The Polls Thread
Replies: 252
Views: 60172

Re: The Polls Thread

The system is Scotland though, it's a bit weird in that it is specifically designed to prevent a one party majority. 56 FPTP seats which the SNP will hiover up the majority of, then a list elected by d'hondt where you're effectively penalised for doing well in the fptp part. It's somewhat bizarre. ...
by midlander12
Sun May 03, 2026 3:46 pm
Forum: News, Current Affairs & Politics
Topic: The Polls Thread
Replies: 252
Views: 60172

Re: The Polls Thread

They'll do well but not as well as people think. The big story will be the kicking that both Labour and Tories will get from reform, green, lib Dems, plaid and SNP. Well, that's baked in. The big story is who benefits in each country. The only certainty it will be the SNP in Scotland, due to fragme...
by midlander12
Sun May 03, 2026 3:43 pm
Forum: News, Current Affairs & Politics
Topic: The Polls Thread
Replies: 252
Views: 60172

Re: The Polls Thread

I think that the MoE on this poll was +/- 2.4%. That is not a defence for the decline of FF and FG. It is not a defence for Labour's decline and the rise of the SocDems. What they have in common is a generational shift with younger voters shifting to alternatives. The main voter base for FF, FG and...
by midlander12
Sun May 03, 2026 3:40 pm
Forum: News, Current Affairs & Politics
Topic: The Polls Thread
Replies: 252
Views: 60172

Re: The Polls Thread

It's intrresting in determining where "centrist" (centre right in this instance) votes go when they get pissed off with the centre. Clearly the rise of the 4 parties you mentioned is larger than the fall of the 2 govt parties. At a guess I'd suggest 3-4% is FG to Aontú and II, and 3-4% fr...
by midlander12
Sat May 02, 2026 8:59 pm
Forum: News, Current Affairs & Politics
Topic: The Polls Thread
Replies: 252
Views: 60172

Re: The Polls Thread

Independents now at a total of 19% and Aontu on7%. This is where the real growth in support is hapoening. Apart from II, most of those Indos are in govt with FF/FG and at 10% they're actually down about 3% on the 2024 GE. I don't think lumping them in with II makes much sense at this stage. FF/FG a...
by midlander12
Sat May 02, 2026 7:14 pm
Forum: News, Current Affairs & Politics
Topic: The Polls Thread
Replies: 252
Views: 60172

Re: The Polls Thread

New Ireland Thinks. FF down 2, II up 3, little else changed. Combined support for II and Aontu is now 16%. In terms of possible coalitions:- FF/FG/Inds max 44% though probably more like 40-41% as not all Inds/Oths aligned with govt. SF/II/Aontu 38% SF/SD/Lab/GP/PBP (not happening of course but just ...
by midlander12
Thu Apr 30, 2026 5:06 pm
Forum: News, Current Affairs & Politics
Topic: United Kingdom Politics
Replies: 416
Views: 147869

Re: United Kingdom Politics

It's not actually the whole of the UK voting either. In England, its some local authorities, but only around a third of all councils. All the London councils, but then it gets very patchy. Metropolitan boroughs, a few county councils, and a mix of unitary and district councils. Some areas are not v...
by midlander12
Wed Apr 29, 2026 9:51 pm
Forum: News, Current Affairs & Politics
Topic: United Kingdom Politics
Replies: 416
Views: 147869

Re: United Kingdom Politics

The latest local election polls emphasise that, notwithstanding Reform's and Farage's recent woes, they remain a serious, clear and present threat. Reform are well ahead in a number of West Midlands councils (by double figures in most). In Birmingham, they're tied with Lab on 21% with the Greens on ...
by midlander12
Wed Apr 29, 2026 6:52 pm
Forum: News, Current Affairs & Politics
Topic: EU consent definition change
Replies: 3
Views: 567

Re: EU consent definition change

Now, maybe I’m a bit thick but I genuinely don’t understand how this is supposed to close any loopholes: “The European Parliament’s resolution, passed on Tuesday by an overwhelming margin, urges all EU member states to adopt an only “yes means yes” legal standard for consent while recognizing that ...
by midlander12
Wed Apr 29, 2026 6:45 pm
Forum: News, Current Affairs & Politics
Topic: A New Hospital for Limerick?
Replies: 13
Views: 13228

Re: A New Hospital for Limerick?

Statsman wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2026 1:59 pm I'm sure it will open in 2040 something.
Ah cheer up, shur didn't ye get the Ryder Cup or something as well?…login to view the rest of this post
by midlander12
Wed Apr 29, 2026 6:42 pm
Forum: News, Current Affairs & Politics
Topic: Presidential Election 2025
Replies: 990
Views: 93181

Re: Presidential Election 2025

True. Goes to show that you can rise above your background in this country with our good solid education system, ambitious parents who value education for their children and will make sacrifices for it, a work ethic, a determination to help others in their turn to improve their lot It happened in m...
by midlander12
Mon Apr 27, 2026 7:00 pm
Forum: News, Current Affairs & Politics
Topic: The Polls Thread
Replies: 252
Views: 60172

Re: The Polls Thread

That assumes that the sample sizes are roughly equal ( i.e. Dublin, RoL. Munster, connacht- ulster all being roughly 250 people, which may not be the case, and even then that's an MoE of roughly ±6.3%. Be interesting in seeing the other regional data, but that said this is the region most devoid of...
by midlander12
Mon Apr 27, 2026 6:55 pm
Forum: News, Current Affairs & Politics
Topic: A 'movement' for a 'new republic'
Replies: 289
Views: 57872

Re: A 'movement' for a 'new republic'

Statsman wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2026 8:03 pm Meanwhile Sinn Fein return to 1914 wi5h ''neither King nor Kaiser'. FFS.
Come to think of it, 'neither king nor Tsar' might be more appropriate these days. But then I suppose someone might have the temerity to remind them about various European Parliament votes and their pre-2022 website.…login to view the rest of this post
by midlander12
Mon Apr 27, 2026 6:51 pm
Forum: News, Current Affairs & Politics
Topic: President Trump survives murder attempt - again!
Replies: 33
Views: 5712

Re: President Trump survives murder attempt - again!

Johnson automatically became president but he wanted to nail it down. He insisted on being given a bible and being sworn in as President before the plane left the runway in Dallas with JFK's corpse on board. He was a very ambitious, insecure, paranoid man (with perhaps a lot to be paranoid about, w...
by midlander12
Sun Apr 26, 2026 9:27 pm
Forum: News, Current Affairs & Politics
Topic: President Trump survives murder attempt - again!
Replies: 33
Views: 5712

Re: President Trump survives murder attempt - again!

My understanding is that on the death of a President the vice President automatically becomes POTUS There is no constitutional need for him to take an Oath of Office. I've no idea but Johnson certainly took it, with Jackie standing beside him in her still-bloodied dress. I think it may even have be...
by midlander12
Sun Apr 26, 2026 7:56 pm
Forum: News, Current Affairs & Politics
Topic: President Trump survives murder attempt - again!
Replies: 33
Views: 5712

Re: President Trump survives murder attempt - again!

One of the correspondents quoted (might have been the Mail or Guardian, can't remember) said that security at the Hilton was very lax Some journalists just waved their tickets at security guards at the entrance. And of course residents staying at the hotel would only have to show their room key swi...
by midlander12
Sun Apr 26, 2026 7:51 pm
Forum: News, Current Affairs & Politics
Topic: The Polls Thread
Replies: 252
Views: 60172

Re: The Polls Thread

https://twitter.com/i/status/2048183791181570345 Much of the 12% for 'Indos and Others' and some of the 7% for II could be said to be going to 'genepool' FFers or FGers. The fall in party support is dramatic enough, but a lot is as much a hankering for 'old FF ' or 'old FG', real or imaginary, as a...
by midlander12
Sun Apr 26, 2026 7:45 pm
Forum: News, Current Affairs & Politics
Topic: The Polls Thread
Replies: 252
Views: 60172

Re: The Polls Thread

While the small subsample should be taken with a pinch of salt. This is pretty stark teasing for govt. https://twitter.com/i/status/2048359087147000150 I posted about this on the other thread. The Connacht-Ulster figures simply don't make sense in the context of the overall national figures given. ...
by midlander12
Sun Apr 26, 2026 7:39 pm
Forum: News, Current Affairs & Politics
Topic: A 'movement' for a 'new republic'
Replies: 289
Views: 57872

Re: A 'movement' for a 'new republic'

From Gavan Reilly:: POLL: Business Post/Red C (circa April 17-22, MoE 3%) Sinn Féin 25 (+1 in four weeks) Fine Gael 16 (-2) Fianna Fáil 16 Social Democrats 8 (-1) Ind Ireland 7 (+2) Aontú 6 Labour 4 PBP-Solidarity 3 Greens 3 Independents 12 Can't see anything that worries SF there, unless Daniel Mu...
by midlander12
Sat Apr 25, 2026 10:01 pm
Forum: News, Current Affairs & Politics
Topic: A 'movement' for a 'new republic'
Replies: 289
Views: 57872

Re: A 'movement' for a 'new republic'

Meanwhile Sinn Fein return to 1914 wi5h ''neither King nor Kaiser'. FFS. I gather there's a Red C poll tonight which I can't access but the by-line below sums it up - FF/FG at new low and 'l ittle joy for SF '. I presume the fash have made hay out of the events of Easter week and SF's latest plunge...
by midlander12
Sat Apr 25, 2026 9:51 pm
Forum: News, Current Affairs & Politics
Topic: A 'movement' for a 'new republic'
Replies: 289
Views: 57872

Re: A 'movement' for a 'new republic'

I've read her stuff recently, the crux of it is that in 1975, 85 or 95, Irelandv was nowhere near the "2nd richest county per capita in Europe" moniker that govt roll out now and then, her argument is that with such wealth, Ireland is incredibly infrastructurally poor. Housing is short an...
by midlander12
Sat Apr 25, 2026 7:57 pm
Forum: News, Current Affairs & Politics
Topic: A 'movement' for a 'new republic'
Replies: 289
Views: 57872

Re: A 'movement' for a 'new republic'

I can't read the article and the headline may be more the editor's fault than the writer's, but she clearly wasn't around in 1975, or 1985, or even 1995. Sinéad O’Sullivan: Ireland’s population is told it has never been richer, yet it has never felt poorer https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2026/04/...
by midlander12
Sat Apr 25, 2026 7:36 pm
Forum: News, Current Affairs & Politics
Topic: DDOS attack on Gubu?
Replies: 11
Views: 3368

Re: DDOS attack on Gubu?

Brabantje wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2026 3:43 pm It's clearly a case of quality over quantity. I mean just look at the posters.
Almost reminiscent of that Aristotlean school of philosophy formerly known as p.ie.…login to view the rest of this post