SuirView wrote: ↑Sun May 03, 2026 11:34 pm I do believe Dublin Central was discussed by you a couple of days ago on this thread.
What changed?

There's a seperate thread. This is the polls thread. For discussing polls.…login to view the rest of this post

SuirView wrote: ↑Sun May 03, 2026 10:10 pm Do you think that the upcoming by-election in MaryLou’s constituency of Dublin Central is a test of her leadership?

The Dublin Central thread is ---> that way.

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The foreign enemy British Local Government (Ireland) Act 1919 introduced the Proportional Representation Single Transferable Vote (PR-STV) system to Ireland, as a strategic attempt to weaken Sinn Féin after Sinn Féin’s landslide victory in the 1918 general election which was held under the First Pa...

Isn't STV used for the Assembly as well, though? Yes, but it's pretty much an identical system to the south. The exception being that all constituencies are 5 seaters. It's actually a hangover from partition. STV was the model for both home rule parliaments, but the north abandoned it very early on...

My bad, 73 FPTP seats in Holyrood. The total number of Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs) elected to the Parliament is 129. The Scottish Parliament uses an additional member system (AMS), designed to produce approximate proportional representation for each region. There are eight regions, eac...

I don't even pretend to understand the Scottish electoral system. It seems to have the worst of both worlds. Oddly enough, they seem to use some version of STV for local elections. As do the north for their locals. With the distributions, because ward electorates are so small they actually distribu...

There's no way of determining that . Given that many of the main bods in II have FF or FFish backgrounds, the exact opposite could be the case. I would also see urban FG voters as more likely to defect to the SD's rather than II or Aontu. However, short of asking a specific question in an opinion p...

Well, that's baked in. The big story is who benefits in each country. The only certainty it will be the SNP in Scotland, due to fragmented unionist vote and despite a considerable drop in their own % vote. The system is Scotland though, it's a bit weird in that it is specifically designed to preven...

They'll do well but not as well as people think. The big story will be the kicking that both Labour and Tories will get from reform, green, lib Dems, plaid and SNP.

...McGuirk said the protests would “clearly will have an impact” on the forthcoming by-elections, and referred to the Sunday Independent opinion poll that put Independent Ireland on 9 per cent and Aontú on 6 per cent. Further fuel protests expected before the autumn Budget, spokesmen say https://ww...

Apart from II, most of those Indos are in govt with FF/FG and at 10% they're actually down about 3% on the 2024 GE. I don't think lumping them in with II makes much sense at this stage. FF/FG are down about 9% since 2024. II are up about 5% and Aontu 3%, SF also up 3% and the SD's 4%. It's quite a ...

Yes, there's quite a length discussion on margin of error at the very beginning of this thread.

Not my problem you are incapable of comprehending basic written English.

Summary, left transfers from SF, Green, PBb and SD helped elect a number of Labour TDs.

Reasonably sure this happened in reverse as well.

Dublin Fingal West

Elimination of PBP and Green elected SF and boosted Labour.
SF surplus widened the gap betwen labour and FG.

Kildare South

Both SF and Labour pushed ahead of FF by elimination of SD candidate.

Dublin Central

Elimination of Neasa Hourigan and surplus of Gary Gannon and Pascal pushed Marie Sherlock ahead of the monk for the last seat.

Dublin Bay South

Ivana 2nd or third throughout. Big transfer from Hazel Chu to push her her back to second.

Wexford

SF 3rd and Labour 4th throughout. No real spare left votes to talk about.

Louth

Nash started in 3rd and remained there with contributions from Green and SD eliminatims.

Cork North Central

Elimination of SF2 kept labour marginally ahead of PBP
Sd elimination after election of SF1 pushed Labour ahead of FF.

Dogfight between labour and pbp for the last seat. Labour won by 35 votes.

Dublin Fingal East

SD elimination ensured both SF and Labour got ahead of FG's Alan Farrell for the last seat.

Limerick city

Left votes had no real impact.

SF elected ahead of SD and Labour, who went down to the wire for the last seat.

You can guess all you want but the fact is that Labour’s Alan Kelly wasn’t elected at the 2024 general election due to “pretty hefty assistance from the left, and SF in particular” in relation to transfers! Do you agree or disagree with me on this? And you can, again, read what i wrote, not what yo...

I'm not suggesting anything. I've posted figures which have no leaning one way or the other. But low grade trolls gonna low grade toll, i guess.